🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still